Empty Streets Tomorrow

Finally, the much-awaited Pacquiao fight is just hours away. Dubbed the "Thrilla in Manila 2", in reference to the Ali-Frazier match decades ago, our very own Manny Pacquiao will be taking on another Mexican in the name of Oscar Larios, at around lunch time tomorrow at the Araneta Coliseum.

This is the first major fight in which Pacquiao will be in front of his countrymen. There was the "Yanig sa Taguig" a few years ago, but it was more of a tune-up fight against a hardly-known opponent. This is different. It's for the WBC International Super Featherweight belt. It is internationally sanctioned, and it is aired worldwide (that's why the fight begins morning, Manila time; so that it would be featured in a prime time slot in the US). Well-known boxing journalists and commentators from all over the world are in the Philippines to cover the fight. They even brought in Michael Buffer (familiar with the line "uhhhh let's get reaaaaddddy to rumbbbbllleeee"?). Just a quick add-on: according to some reports, the fight organizers are paying around 1 million pesos just for that introductory line before the fight. Apparently, he has already made a fortune in just doing that, and has sued (and won in all cases) a lot of imitators.

Now back to the fight itself. Unfortunately for Manny, homecourt advantage also has its disadvantages. First, there's the pressure. 80 million Filipinos will be following the fight. That's a lot of weight to carry on your shoulders. Another problem could be overconfidence or being overzealous. Manny might wanna put on a show. He might perform instead of fight. The adrenaline and the roars of the crowd may drive him into thinking of finishing the fight early. That could work against him.

All signs lead to a big upset tomorrow. Remember Barrera in San Antonio (which is regarded as his hometown) in 2003. Well, Pacquiao, the heavy underdog, shocked the boxing world in one of the biggest upsets ever. Will the tables turn tomorrow?

According to reports, Larios is in top form. Pacquiao, on the other hand, seems to have a lot of distractions. All the advertisements and endorsements, TV and movie appearances, album sales, cockfighting, the civil suit against him, and of course the movie that just came out about his life.

As one journalist put it, a movie about Pacquiao's life is already out (starring Jericho Rosales as Pacquiao) in a time when his career is still rising. Usually, movies about heroes are done towards the end of their career or even when they retire. Could this be a sign that his career is on the decline?

We will all know in a few hours. People will be glued to their TVs or radios tomorrow. Where will I be? Well, I plan to wake up at 5 a.m., go jogging at the boulevard, attend mass at Immaculate Church by 7, go home and freshen up, then be at Macias Sports Center with law classmates by 9 a.m. The fight won't be there, but there's a big screen for public viewing. It will be televised on TV but the commercials delay the coverage by so much. I remember, during the last Morales fight in Las Vegas, an aunt who watched the fight live, informed us Pacquiao already won, when the TV broadcast showed it was still the first round. The one in Macias is live without commercial break. Although it costs 20 Pesos, it would be nice to witness the fight with other sports fans. Plus, the undercard fights feature a number of Filipinos led by Jimrex Jaca and Gerry Peñalosa. Unfortunately, one of the Pinoy rising young boxers, Boomboom Bautista, had withdrawn due to some injury.

As for my prediction, it's hard to say. It has been shown through reports that Larios is in excellent shape. I don't know if the organizers (ABS-CBN and others) are doing this on purpose to build up the fight. Months ago, people think that Pacquiao will breeze by Larios, and some do not wish to spend as much as 1000 Pesos (reportedly the lowest ticket price, the highest being 50000 Pesos) for a fight that would finish early. It has been reported that ticket sales are low. That's when the media (led by ABS-CBN of course), did their thing by conditioning our minds that Larios is a great fighter.

If this is true, then they did a good job. I now think Larios is capable of beating Pacquiao in the latter's own turf. However, patriotic as I am, I don't think it will happen. Larios is a hard-worker, but I believe hard work is not enough to overcome raw power and skills. Even a 100% Larios could not beat an 80% Pacquiao. If Pacman is not overconfident and overzealous, then I think he'd knock out Larios inside 7 rounds. Otherwise, he'd win via split decision in 12 full rounds. If Manny would be careless in the later rounds, a late knockout by Larios is possible. The key there to me is the first couple of rounds. Manny should not come out firing and attacking immediately. An open defense may lead into a Larios power punch - and he has that powerful punch. He should feel him out first with jabs and then start the barrage perhaps on the 4th round, when he could already gauge the skills of his opponent.

I know my so-called predictions are play-it-safe. Actually, it's not much of a prediction. The best I could foresee is this: the streets will definitely be empty tomorrow morning 'til after lunch.

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